The question, "Will the Grizzlies be Able to Make the Playoffs?" seems to swirl around a lot these days. Well, I'm here to disprove that theory, and supplement it with a theory of my own.

Allen Iverson used to be able to carry a team, but for a guy who relied on his explosiveness to the hole and extreme athleticism for his small stature, he's gotten old. Without that athleticism and speed, he's become an overpaid streaky shooter, like John Starks or Ben Gordon. You gotta feel for guys like that (Eduardo Najera) who lose their careers in their early 30s because they relied on their speed and athleticism so much, and don't have the body to evolve their game to still be effective. Players who have been able to survive after relying on athleticism usually have big bodies, like Shaq, who used to be explosive, but now gets by on body bigness, and Antonio McDyess, who used to be a huge dunker, but now relies on a lot of back to the basket stuff, and et cetera.

That being said, it was a total mistake for Iverson to sign on to the Grizzlies at this point. First of all, they're no longer coached by Marc Iveroni, so you can't have Iverson and Iveroni, which would be hilarious. Second of all, this team sucks. I mean, Conley, Gay, Mayo, Thabeet, and Gasol isn't a bad lineup moving forward, but for right now, they're still developing, and still don't look like they can win much more than 30 games. Old men like Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson just look out of place, taking up minutes from potential prospects for no reason. It's like Memphis has just become one of those teams that players make a last stop at in their NBA careers for whatever reason before they retire. Like Golden State was a few years ago.

I mean, I don't think the average NBA fan understands that the playoffs don't happen overnight. When you've got a team that wins 24 games one season, if you keep same same key players from last season, they're not going to make a 20 game jump. In order to do that, there has to be some sort of huge roster turnover (like the Boston Celtics had) or a lot of teams have to collapse in their way. Right now, no West teams look like they're giving up, and I just don't see anyone making way for the Grizzlies, even though they have a new streaky shooter. I mean, just go back though the NBA standings the past few years, and point out a team that has improved by over 15 games while having largely the same roster as last year. It just doesn't happen, at least all that often. Now, I'm not saying that largely the same roster can't improve significantly over a few years through development of young players. I mean, look at the Blazers:

05-06: 21-61
06-07: 32-50
07-08: 41-41
08-09: 54-28
09-10: Some people are predicting over 60 wins.

I know the last improvement was big, but this came at a time when the Western conference saw a lot of parity, which accounted for the extra couple wins. People call the Blazers a team that's on the up and up and that's making massive improvements. But, look how long it's taken for them to get to a truly elite level: 5 years. Now, let's look at the Grizzlies example:

05-06: 49-33
06-07: 22-60
07-08: 22-60
08-09: 24-58

If anything, this should tell you that the Grizzlies have a lot, and I mean, a lot of work to do. Even if these guys have been together for these three years, they haven't shown any improvement at all. At absolute best, I'd expect 35 wins. 40? It would take a LOT of collapses by other teams, and some amazing play from Allen Iverson. But, 40 wins isn't enough to get you to the playoffs in the West. So, 45? Don't kid yourself. This isn't your fathers Allen Iverson.

And, by the same token, the Thunder are not going to win 40 games, much less make the playoffs. Before you start debating me, lets look at the records:

04-05: 52-30
05-06: 35-47
06-07: 31-51
07-08: 20-62
08-09: 23-59

Now, before you think, "Hey, we're in Year 5 of rebuilding!", consider the fact that 05-07 were the Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis years. We're talking guys on the team like Radmanovic, Wilcox, Watson, et cetera. Those guys are all gone. 07-08 can be considered the real "beginning" of our era, with guys like Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. But, even then, the Thunder have been experiencing their veteran players slowly give way to younger, more inexperienced guys. This isn't a bad thing, as it's necessary, but it means that it's just going to take that much longer for this team to develop.

I mean, have you ever stopped to consider why the Thunder advertising slogan is something completely silly like, "Thunder Up!"? It's because they know making the playoffs is a huge long shot. If they seriously thought they could make the playoffs, they'd have a slogan like Phoenix's old one, which was, "Eyes on the Prize".

In any case, this team gets 35 wins next year maximum, and I'd predict around 30, personally. Then, next year, we can all hope for 41.

Now, before I'm done, I know that some of you are going to cite the example of the Hornets, who had a massive improvement when they came to Oklahoma City. Well, let's address that, shall we?

02-03: 47-35
03-04: 41-41
04-05: 18-62
05-06: 38-44
06-07: 39-43
07-08: 56-26
08-09: 49-33

Okay, now, critics of my "theory" will point out the jump from 04-05 to 05-06, and the jump from 06-07 to 07-08. First of all, let me point out that 04-05 was just a total team collapse. Some of the players from the previous two winning seasons were there, like Baron Davis and Jamaal Magloire, but the team was in-between eras, and when they saw that they had no hope of playoffs, they traded Davis away, and scrubs got a lot of floor time. The fans were completely apathetic, and people were seriously questioning the ability of New Orleans to support a NBA team (Seriously!). Then, the hurricane happened, and the Hornets move from a small, apathetic crowd to 18,000 screaming fans. They also gain what has to be one of the best rookie Point Guards of All-Time: Chris Paul. This guy, unlike Baron Davis, was able to pull the entire team together. And the team itself doesn't consist of first or second year players or complete scrubs from the previous era like the Thunder do/did. They weren't trying to farm their own crop of players. Rather, it was a mesh of quality players that already know how things go in this league, guys like P.J. Brown, Chris Andersen, Desmond Mason, Speedy Claxton, Rasual Butler, Bostjan Nachbar, and Aaron Williams.

I guess my point here is that the Hornets simply weren't totally blowing up their team and starting from scratch. They were trading for veteran talent, and just HAPPENED to stumble upon the greatest Point Guard of our time.

As for the second jump in record, it can be explained in one simple word: Injuries. The Hornets were just stifled by the injury bug in 06-07 (as I'm sure Thunder fans remember), and at one point, we had West, Chandler, Peja, and Paul all out at the same time. Yeah. We were starting guys like Devin Brown, Jannero Pargo, and Hilton Armstrong. Realistically, if we had kept our team realatively intact, we could have had a win total in the mid 40s, which makes the next seasons record seem totally feasible.

Now, for those of you who are pointing to the Grizzlies right now and saying that they have veteran talent, I have an argument for you too. What kind of Veteran talent are we talking about? Lets list all of the players with more than 2 years experience on the Grizzlies:

Allen Iverson
Zach Randolph
Steven Hunter
Marko Jaric
Rudy Gay
Marcus Williams

Now, Zach Randolph has good averages, but he's still been playing for a lot of subpar teams (Bad Blazers, Knicks, Clippers). I'll admit, he's good, but is he really that much better than Marc Gasol or Hasheem Thabeet? Not to mention that his past two seasons have been totally injury riddled.

Allen Iverson, as said before, is a shadow of his former self. Steven Hunter and Marko Jaric? Puh-leaze. Two has-beens if I've ever seen them. Hunter once showed promise as a young center, but that hope has all but gone away. Marko Jaric is just another one of those dime-a-dozen streaky shooters. Rudy Gay and Marcus Williams are both developed, but the rest of the team still has some work to do.

Now, I know this article sounds pessimistic, and it might even depress some people, but I'd love for Memphis and Oklahoma City to go ahead and prove me wrong. Maybe there will be a changing of the guard, and there will be a sudden rocketing to the top of lower Western-conference teams. It would be totally awesome, and I'd be cheering on the streets with the rest of you, singing, "I was wrong, I was wrong!".

But, don't bet on it.

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