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Oklahoma City Thunder
vs
Orlando Magic
The view from the other side
thepunsarestartingtoboreme.com
Preview
The History
Last time Dwight Howard was in OKC he put up a triple double, 30 pts 19 rebounds 10 blocks. When the Thunder went to Orlando he dropped 21 pts and 23 rebounds. So Howard has to be licking his chops for the upcoming matchup. The first game last season Kevin Durant was out and the result was a seventeen point loss. Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Mouhamed Sene, and Steven Hill combined for 35 min. The second game, another 9 point loss, saw Kevin Durant get a double double and Russell Westbrook just miss one with 9 rebounds.
The Matchups
Jameer Nelson v Russell Westbrook
All Star point guard vs hopefully future all star point guard. Nelson started out hot from three but has cooled slightly. When Jameer Nelson has less than 5 turnovers the Magic win the one game, against Detroit, where he turned the ball over 5 times with 6 assists. When Hustle has over 10 assists the Thunder win, it might seem overly simplistic but really when Hustle is setting up good shots for his teammates and they are knocking them down he is getting assists and the Thunder are getting wins. How many more assists does he have if KD can knock down a few more shots against Portland when he went 3-20, or against the Lakers when KD had two chances to end the game but couldn't get his shot to fall, or in any of the three losses when Krstic struggled so much. Westbrooks assists are, like it or not, a barometer for how well this team is shooting.
Edge
Vince Carter v Thabo Sefolosha
Vince is doubtful for the game and if he doesn't play I imagine JJ Reddick will step in. If Vince does play he will be going up against one of the better defensive specialists in the game. Vince like Jameer started off hot from three he shot .625 in October, but the time off appears to have built some rust as he shot only .333 in the one game he played so far in November. Thabo is coming off a lackluster performance against Houston. Ariza had 21 points on 8-18 shooting but Thabo was largely invisiable defensively. Thabo has been shooting really well in limited action he is currently over .500 from three and right at .500 from the field, his development has possibly given the Thunder the sniper from beyond they needed last year. Whoever the Magic throw out at the two will have to be sure not to leave Thabo wide open in the corner or he could really do some damage.
Edge
Mickael Pietrus v Kevin Durant
KD is averaging over 40 minutes a game which is not a good thing for the Thunder later in the year. Scott Brooks has got to find a way to get him some rest and get him down to about 35-38 min a game or he will struggle down the stretch. The Magic love to stretch the floor and Pietrus is another three point shooter, however like Nelson and Carter he is struggling right now. While the good shooters are threats to go off any given night they touch the ball the Thunder have been playing better defense this year so hopefully they can get a little luck and get some turnovers and force some bad shots. KD is KD and last game he did pull out of his struggles to a degree, the game wasn't really in doubt so the pressure issue is still in the back of everyones mind, and even in the games he has struggled shooting he has found other ways to contribute either through defense or rebounds. That's right your leading rebounder for the Thunder is one Kevin Durant. Pietrus may be good but he isn't the kind of lock down defender that can frustrate KD.
Edge
Ryan Anderson v Jeff Green
Another perimeter oriented power forward which should be an easier draw than the bangers Green has faced the last couple of games. Anderson is another player that can knock down the three if you give him the space, good defensive closeouts will be needed to force the Orlando shooters to hurry their shots. Green struggled last game from the field 3-15 and from three he went 0-4, on the plus side his defense has been great and in the last two games he has two blocks.
Edge Push
Dwight Howard v Nenad Krstic
Dwight Howard is the leagues premier center and I don't think there is a tougher defensive draw fro the Thunder. So far this year the Thunder have struggled against shot blocking big men. Part of that has to be attributed to KD's struggles from the field in the Portland game but nonetheless Dwight Howard is without a doubt one of the best at blocking shots. Krstic will probably start the game and if the Thunder are going to have a chance his shot will not only have to be falling it will have to force Howard out of the paint to guard it. If Howard is forced out of the paint Hustle may be able to drive the lane and force the defense to collapse and open up the outside the Thunder might be able to knock down enough shots to keep it close and maybe steal the game.
Edge
Bench v Bench
The Polish Hammer has not been all that impressive lately, Jeff Green actually as more total blocks than Gortat, but still alters shots and provides Howard a rest without much of a drop in the defensive intensity. JJ Redick will likely start for Carter tonight and has been hitting his threes with a great consistency, he is shooting .542 and has been one of the most consistent shooters on the team. Jason Williams has been getting quite a few minutes the past few games and has done a good job of protecting the ball he has only one game with more than one turnover and an impressive assist to turnover ratio.
Probably the bench player most likely to have an impact in this game is Etan Thomas, if I were Brooks I might even start him considering the struggles Krstic has had. Collison has spent the past couple of games coming off the bench to provide a spark and might be called in to defend Howard down in the post if Thomas and Krstic get into foul trouble.
Edge
The Prediction
Howard will have his way with whoever the Thunder throw in down low, and will prevent the Thunder from driving the lane. The defensive intensity will have to be there to prevent the Magic from hoisting three pointers and burying the Thunder early. Can the Thunder slow down Howard enough to keep the game close and have a chance to win? Probably not, but it will be a good chance to see how Etan Thomas does on defense, and if Nenad Krstic can play some effective defense against one of the best centers in the league.
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