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Oklahoma City Thunder
vs
Denver Nuggets
Preview
The story so far
This is the matchup of the night, at least in my opinion. You have two stars going head to head, two teams battling for playoff position, and a possible changing of the guard at point guard. The Nuggets are in a slump having just gone 0 for 2 on the road, but now they are back home. The Thunder will need to play a good game and make very few mistakes if they want to pull out the win in Denver.
The Matchups
Chauncey Billups v Russell Westbrook
Billups is the vet with the big game experience, Westbrook the up and coming sophomore, so who comes out on top. I would have said Billups before February, now with Westbrook coming off a month in which he averaged 18.8 points 10 assists and 6.5 rebounds I got to go with Westbrook. Westbrook is also averaging 30 points and 13 rebounds for the month of March, granted it's only one game but that's an impressive average.
Edge
Arron Afflalo v Thabo Sefolosha
Both Afflalo and Billups upped their shooting percentage from the first game against OKC in the second. Afflalo went from 1-6 to 4-8 and hit two threes for a total of 11. Sefolosha continues to try and find open shots he can make in the run of the game. His playing time has been erratic but expect him to see big minutes tonight trying to contain Melo, particularly if Harden is struggling again.
Edge Push
Carmelo Anthony v Kevin Durant
Finally we get the premire matchup, arguably two of the top three Small Forwards in the game. The majority of the scoring tonight will come right here. Carmelo is better down low but Durant is a better pure shooter. Durant got 30 on 19 shots against Afflalo last game in OKC so it will be interesting to see if the Nuggets go with Afflalo on Durant or if Carmelo steps up to defend KD.
Edge
Kenyon Martin v Jeff Green
Martin is a solid rebounder but has struggled on offense against the Thunder before. The Thunder went 9-2 in February and a big reason for that was the improved play of Westbrook and Green. Green has not had the fanfare Westbrook and Durant has but he quietly has started to turn around a disappointing third year slump. In February Green averaged 16.9 points and 6.2 rebounds while shooting 48% from the field and 43% from three.
Edge Push
Nene v Nenad Krstic
I keep thinking Nene has just beat the heck out of the Thunder down low but when I look to the box score I just don't see it. Nene is certainly a physical center with the weight and ability to push Krstic around on the block. Krstic has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the improvement of Westbrook. Krstic continues to show more and more of an offensive game as the season progresses.
Edge
Bench v Bench
With Ty Lawson out the Nuggets will be relying more on Anthony Carter to provide veteran leadership while on the floor. Chris Anderson will continue to protect the paint which could cut short some of Westbrook's drives into the lane. JR Smith has unlimited range and is not afraid to jack up shots from all over the court.
Collison is always good for 20 minutes 5 or 6 rebounds and 5 or 6 points. In the win over Sacramento he was the one bench player who really contributed. Ibaka got into foul trouble early, Maynor was not able to defend either Evans or Udrih, and Harden went 1-5 and picked up 5 fouls in 18 minutes. On the whole though the Thunder bench has been a strength more often than weakness. Ibaka has become the high energy guy who also is able to grab the tough rebounds. Maynor is solid in backup of Westbrook. Harden continues to shoot and is a steady source of offense for the second unit.
Edge Push
The Prediction
Last time the Nuggets were hot winning 8 of 10 and the Thunder were on a 3 game losing streak looking at 4 in a row. The Thunder got a bit of a break when Melo was ruled out but all in all they played a good game and got the win at home. The Thunder are one of a few teams with a winning road record, so the venue might not matter as much as most would believe. This team walking into Phoenix and pulled out a win then the next night went into a seemingly invincible ELC and beat the Jazz. The point is they know they can win on the road even in the tough places against the best teams. The key will be Green and Westbrook, if Westbrook can finish around the rim and get some fouls on Anderson and Nene it will let Krstic and Collison be more aggressive under the basket.
Thunder win 105-102
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